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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.