A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
