Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
