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At first, Trump seemed to adopt a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" in August if Putin persisted obstructing peace discussions, the former president finally introduced major penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, with his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Invasion

This initiative would in practice reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business past, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying giving Putin a part of Ukrainian land will appease the president. But, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although maintaining in place the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would force the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that represent a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a action that would facilitate renewed fighting easier for Russia, Trump would require the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no such limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Any radical belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by holding votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the plan includes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent agreements in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should anyone believe this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated military response" in case Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details vary from vague to troubling. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from stationing forces on the nation's land, thus preventing the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

A separate parallel deal reportedly would offer the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "significant, planned, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. But unlike a powerful national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, like Trump, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not